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Fuel Prices in Germany and Neighbouring Countries Since the Start of the Iran War
Data analysis of weekly petrol prices (Super E5) in nine European countries. Baseline 23 February 2026 vs. peak values late March 2026 — up to 25% price increase.
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Analysis to the following question: By how much did prices in all countries rise from the start of the Iran war as baseline to the highest peak value of each country. Data basis: Dashboard Deutschland CSV.
Data Basis
The analysis is based on the weekly time series Petrol price Super E5 (price per litre in euros) for Germany and eight neighbouring countries, provided via Dashboard Deutschland (Federal Statistical Office / BMWi). The dataset covers weekly surveys from July 2016 to March 2026.
Original data: Dashboard Deutschland — Petrol Prices (CSV/interactive)
Methodology
- Baseline: 23 February 2026 — the last measured value immediately before the war-driven price jumps
- Peak value: The highest recorded price per litre per country in March 2026 (all countries reached their peaks in the week of 23 or 30 March 2026)
- Calculation: Absolute increase (euros) and relative increase (percent) compared to baseline
Results
Sorted in descending order by absolute price increase:
| Country | Baseline (23 Feb) | Peak (late March) | Absolute increase | Relative increase |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austria | €1.51 | €1.88 | +€0.37 | +24.50% |
| Belgium | €1.50 | €1.85 | +€0.35 | +23.33% |
| Czech Republic | €1.37 | €1.69 | +€0.32 | +23.36% |
| Germany | €1.82 | €2.13 | +€0.31 | +17.03% |
| Denmark | €1.94 | €2.25 | +€0.31 | +15.98% |
| Poland | €1.38 | €1.69 | +€0.31 | +22.46% |
| France | €1.71 | €2.01 | +€0.30 | +17.54% |
| Netherlands | €2.06 | €2.35 | +€0.29 | +14.08% |
| Luxembourg | €1.46 | €1.73 | +€0.27 | +18.49% |
Average increase: +€0.31 / +19.53%
Findings
Systemic Supply Shock
The price increase affects all nine countries simultaneously and to a comparable degree (€0.27–0.37). This is clearly an external, geopolitically caused supply shock, not national tax policy or local market effects.
Highest Absolute Increase: Austria and Belgium
The strongest shock was experienced by Austria (+€0.37, +24.5%) and Belgium (+€0.35, +23.3%). Both countries had comparatively moderate starting levels (around €1.50) but were disproportionately hit.
Germany: Average Increase, but High Level
At +€0.31, Germany is exactly in the middle. Since the starting level at €1.82 was already high, the relative increase at +17% is more moderate than in cheaper neighbours. However: €2.13 per litre is the highest petrol price ever recorded in Germany in this time series.
Price Level Gap
The Netherlands (€2.35) and Denmark (€2.25) reach the highest absolute peak values. In the cheaper countries (Poland, Czech Republic, Austria), the percentage increase is significantly sharper — all above +22%. This hits households in countries with lower wage levels particularly hard.
Historical Comparison
Current peak values exceed previous records from the 2022 energy crisis (Russia’s war on Ukraine) in several countries. Germany was at approximately €2.06 in June 2022 — the current €2.13 is a new all-time record.
Temporal Course of the Price Shock
The price increase unfolds in three phases:
- Pre-shock (through 23 February 2026): Stable prices at moderate levels, seasonally normal
- First jump (CW 9–10, from 2 March): +€0.07 to +€0.20 in one week — markets react to the start of the war
- Escalation (CW 11–13, through 30 March): Weekly increases of €0.05–0.15, driven by sanctions and supply chain disruptions (Strait of Hormuz)
Sources
- Dataset: Dashboard Deutschland — Petrol Prices (Federal Statistical Office, BMWi)
- Data collection method: Weekly survey of filling station prices for super petrol (E5), figures in EUR per litre
Editorial note (Um:bruch)
This analysis deliberately limits itself to presenting the data. The political and economic policy assessment — particularly the debate on price intervention vs. demand management — is found in the accompanying editorial.